Bitcoin is nearing the $100,000 milestone, trading at $99,700 amid geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policies. Experts like Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered note significant inflows from ETFs; Arthur Hayes from BitMEX predicts a monetary policy shift. Analysts from VanEck cite sanctions evasion as a key factor driving Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, speculation about Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 is prevalent in recent market trends.
Bitcoin is on the brink of a significant milestone, nearing the $100,000 mark. As it trades around $99,700 in New York this Thursday, a rally has jumped from about $94,000 just a week earlier. This surge comes amidst ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and other nations, reflecting a mixture of optimism despite geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies. So, what’s sparking this fevered activity? Let’s unpack the thoughts of several experts in the industry.
Geoffrey Kendrick, who’s the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, weighs in. He notes a shift in Bitcoin’s status; it was once seen as a risk asset or a shield against tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. Now, Kendrick believes it’s all about the capital flows driving Bitcoin’s price. He pointed out that recent inflows, especially into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have been remarkable—$3.5 billion in just three weeks! He hinted that perhaps his previous prediction of a $120,000 high for the second quarter might even be conservative.
From a slightly different perspective, Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX, expects the Federal Reserve to eventually adjust monetary policy to support economic growth, thereby lifting Bitcoin along with it. Hayes argues that the existing climate of fear and doubt in the markets will compel US authorities to resort to practices like money printing. He’s previously pushed a $200,000 price prediction, and in a recent comment, he reiterated that “physically that’s gold, digitally that’s Bitcoin” as investors seek alternatives outside of the US dollar.
Meanwhile, Robbie Mitchnick of BlackRock is keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s relationship with technology stocks. He believes that if Bitcoin can decouple from what he describes as “left tail” events—those extreme downturns— it could emerge as a vital asset class in institutional investment portfolios. His insights suggest that the behaviour of tech stocks will be critical for Bitcoin’s future movements.
Looking at the macroeconomic landscape, analysts from VanEck, including Matthew Sigel, Patrick Bush, and Nathan Frankovitz, foresee that countries bypassing US sanctions will aid in Bitcoin’s adoption and price increase. They highlight that nations like Russia and Venezuela are beginning to view Bitcoin as a necessary instrument for international trade, keeping in mind the cushioning against dollar volatility and overzealous sanctioning from Western nations. There’s a broader shift anticipated towards using cryptocurrencies, and many believe it’s just the start.
On a more speculative front, data from Polymarket indicate that market bettors are optimistic too. Predictions show a significant likelihood of Bitcoin reaching various high points in May—60% chance it’ll hit $105,000, a one-in-three shot at $110,000, and a 43% chance of even reaching $130,000 this year. What’s shaping these bets? Speculation is clearly playing a big role as interest and engagement in the cryptocurrency market remain high.
As Bitcoin approaches this historic mark, the views from experts paint a picture of both excitement and caution. Analysts are tracking closely, and investors are placing their bets. Only time will reveal whether the cryptocurrency can truly break through the $100,000 threshold and forge new paths for digital assets.
