Bitcoin’s price surges past $100,000, reaching $103,800, prompting analyst Burak Kesmeci to highlight the Advanced NVT metric, which suggests potential market shifts. Currently above the 2xSD threshold, historical trends indicate this could either lead to a rally or significant correction. Investors are advised to watch this critical metric closely, as Bitcoin is at an important junction for its future pricing.
Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable leap, now trading above the psychological $100,000 threshold for the first time since early 2025. Reaching a peak of $103,800 recently, it has not only reignited excitement among investors but also raised questions about the cryptocurrency’s future direction as key on-chain metrics indicate a pivotal moment for BTC.
Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci recently brought attention to the Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric, which has surged past a critical benchmark. This measurement, a more sophisticated version of the classic NVT, examines the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the dollar volume transacted on the blockchain daily. Kesmeci suggests that this change could lead to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price.
To dive deeper, the Advanced NVT metric offers insights into extreme valuation scenarios. It signals caution when it exceeds its long-term moving average by more than two standard deviations (2xSD). Historically, such surges have either indicated upcoming price rallies or foreshadowed sharp corrections, prompting a careful analysis of the present data.
The analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT is currently over the 2xSD threshold, a level typically not maintained long-term unless an explosive price increase is imminent. Kesmeci believes that there’s potential for Bitcoin to rise even above a 4xSD, citing historical patterns notably observed after the approval of Spot ETFs.
However, there’s also a note of caution; while the Advanced NVT being over 2xSD usually precedes a market rally, it doesn’t guarantee that it will drop below this level. This makes it essential for investors to monitor this metric closely, as Bitcoin stands at a crucial crossroads that could define its future price movement.
Glimpsing the current price situation, Bitcoin has reclaimed its six-figure valuation after falling below the $100,000 milestone back in February. As of now, the cryptocurrency hovers around $103,100, marking a modest 0.5% rise in the past 24 hours. More impressively, Bitcoin has appreciated over 6% in the last week, manifesting strong momentum heading into uncertain waters ahead.
