Bitcoin’s price rally nears $105,000 as institutional interest grows, yet conflicting market signals may hinder a new all-time high. Accumulation is strong, but the Liveliness metric shows potential selling by long-term holders. Bitcoin faces crucial resistance at $106,265, and failure to breach could lead to a correction to $100,000.
Investors have been buzzing about Bitcoin lately, as its price tiptoes near the $105,000 mark, which sure makes for some exciting trading. Over the past month, Bitcoin has managed to build up some steam, driven largely by a resurgence of institutional investment and a dose of renewed overall confidence in the market. However, it’s not all smooth sailing; there are thorny conditions in the market that might prevent Bitcoin from actually hitting a new all-time high.
In the world of Bitcoin, investors have been very active—mostly buying. In just the last week, about 30,072 BTC has been snatched up, which is more than $3.13 billion worth. This kind of buying spree has pushed the exchange net position to its lowest point in four months, signalling a significant trend: more individuals are taking coins off exchanges than putting them in. This pattern is generally viewed as a sign of accumulation, as holders rush to secure their position before any potential surge.
Meanwhile, the fear of missing out, or FOMO, seems to be driving holders to stack Bitcoin. With the cryptocurrency so close to its record peak, it looks like long-term investors are not shying away from pouring more into their portfolios. But here’s where things get tricky: the macro picture appears rather mixed. A crucial on-chain metric called the Liveliness indicator has shot up since May began. It’s currently at a high not seen in weeks, indicating that long-term holders (LTHs) may be opting to cash in now.
A hike in Liveliness usually means that coins that have been lying dormant are at play again, often as early adopters decide to take some profits. While this may inject some selling pressure, it stands to challenge the buoyant sentiment that comes with strong accumulation. If LTHs keep dumping their holdings, it could weaken the bullish vibe that new accumulation has created.
At present, Bitcoin is trading around $104,231—still shy of the psychological barrier of $105,000. However, the real resistance levels are around $106,265, a point that has proved to be challenging for Bitcoin since December 2024. Although the all-time high sits at $109,588, that $106,265 level is crucial. With a mix of selling from LTHs and wavering investor sentiment, the market dynamics make this spot hard to surpass.
If Bitcoin can’t breach this resistance, it’s not far-fetched to think we might see a price correction drop back to $100,000. But on the flip side, if Bitcoin can flip that $106,265 resistance into support, we might just see bullish energy charged back up. Should that happen, reclaiming the $109,588 peak—and maybe even hitting a new all-time high of $110,000—could be on the cards.
In summary, while the Bitcoin rally might be turning some heads, the conflicting market signals could mean that investors should approach this surge with a degree of caution.
