Analyst Sees Potential for Bitcoin Price Peaks Between $220K and $330K

Bitcoin researcher Sminston With predicts BTC’s potential peak could reach $220K-$330K, indicating a significant price increase ahead. His analysis highlights ongoing volatility, countering beliefs of decreased price swings. Furthermore, long-term holders have moved over $4 billion in BTC, hinting at probable profit-taking, while technical trends suggest potential market shifts. However, scepticism is advised regarding these predictions, based on a limited cycle analysis.

In a recent analysis, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could still see substantial price gains, potentially reaching between $220,000 and $330,000. With highlights that BTC might achieve a 100% to 200% increase from its current levels. This forecast comes amid ongoing cyclical volatility, contradicting assumptions that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are softening over time.

With recent posts on X, he shared a Bitcoin price chart using a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) alongside a power law model. This model, boasting a high determination coefficient (R²=0.96), indicates that Bitcoin’s price trends in a predictable manner over time. Contrary to common exponential growth models used for stocks, this framework shows that Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA peaks two to three times above the power law trendline in each market cycle. Currently, with Bitcoin priced around $110,000 as of May 27, the model anticipates a potential cycle top within that $220,000 to $330,000 range.

The second chart shared reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s price volatility remains steady and does not exhibit signs of decrease over time. This goes against the widespread belief that Bitcoin’s price cycles are becoming less volatile, pointing instead to sustained and possibly heightened price swings in the near future.

Forecasting towards the end of this year, With had predicted a six-figure price for Bitcoin by January 2025 when it was still hovering near $60,000. The analysis closely examined how Bitcoin behaves at cycle peaks, especially during decaying periods where returns diminish as strategies become widely popular. These cycles often end with sharp price declines due to widespread profit-taking.

As part of his analysis, With presents detailed price targets for 2025, though he cautions that his findings are based on only four market cycles, urging a note of scepticism in interpretation.

Amid these speculations, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have notably shifted around $4.02 billion worth of BTC, marking the largest movements from those holding their coins for 1 to 5 years since February 2025. Data from Glassnode reveals that this uptick was largely driven by the 3 to 5-year holders, representing $2.16 billion of the total. The pattern showcases a correlation between LTH spending and price peaks, indicating potential profit-taking as BTC struggles to hold above the $110,000 mark.

However, any further sharp price movements might be contingent on a simultaneous rise in BTC exchange reserves, which are presently declining. On a technical note, Bitcoin’s upward trend remains intact as it sets higher highs and lows since touching a low of $74,500. Each subsequent peak has been followed by sideways movements, suggesting the current pullback might abate before another breakout.

Despite these mixed signals, trader TXMC pointed out that Bitcoin’s current green streak—potentially its most sustained since 2013—could be coming to an end. The analyst observes that seven to eight consecutive green weeks have historically been precursors for pullbacks or periods of consolidation, with last week marking the seventh consecutive green week for BTC.

It’s essential to note this article does not provide financial advice. Every trading decision comes with risks, and individuals should conduct thorough research before acting on any information.