Bitcoin Sees Negative Funding on Binance Amid Political Tensions

Bitcoin funding rates on Binance have shifted to negative, driven by political tensions, suggesting possible buying opportunities. Recent history shows that similar scenarios have preceded price rallies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales are accumulating, with some analysts expecting significant price increases, though cautionary forecasts predict possible drops below $100,000 first.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market recently experienced a notable shift, moving from a positive to a negative funding rate on Binance, coinciding with rising political tensions, particularly between US President Donald Trump and tech mogul Elon Musk. This fluctuation in sentiment highlights the susceptibility of Bitcoin to external influences, leading to increased nervousness among trading participants.

In a recent report from CryptoQuant’s Darkfost, the funding rates for Bitcoin on Binance dipped sharply to -0.004, a significant drop from the previous +0.003—despite the cryptocurrency trading above the $100,000 mark at the time. The analyst suggested that the social media feud between Trump and Musk contributed to this negative sentiment. Subsequently, Bitcoin fell from a mid-range price of approximately $100,000 to around $100,984, representing a 4.1% decline over the past two weeks.

Interestingly, this downturn could provide an enticing buying opportunity for investors. Should Bitcoin exhibit a strong rebound, it might generate significant buying pressure that could lead to a short squeeze, pushing prices even higher. Historical patterns observed by Darkfost indicate that deep negative funding has previously preceded substantial upward movements in Bitcoin’s price.

For instance, on October 16, 2023, Bitcoin’s plunge into negative funding coincided with a rally from $28,000 to $73,000. Similar surges occurred on September 9, 2024, climbing from $57,000 to $108,000, and again on May 2, 2025, where it soared from $97,000 to an all-time high (ATH) of $111,000. Darkfost remarked that such extreme negative funding levels often align with moments of maximum pessimism among investors, which could foreshadow a strong bullish reversal.

In parallel, Bitcoin whales—wallets that hold substantial Bitcoin amounts—have been notably active, accumulating BTC worth around $63 billion recently. This bullish trend reflects a growing confidence in Bitcoin’s prospective value. Analysis from QCR Capital corroborates this sentiment, projecting a possibility that Bitcoin might reach up to $130,000 by the end of the third quarter of 2025, backed by a realized cap of over $20 billion held by long-term investors.

However, not all analysts share this optimistic outlook. Some caution that Bitcoin might face a sharper decline, potentially dipping below the $100,000 threshold before resuming a bullish trend. As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at $104,069, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours, indicating that the market remains turbulent and unpredictable as sentiments shift.