Bitcoin Weekly Drawdown Shrinks to 4.7% – Calm Before the Next Breakout?

Bitcoin has surged above $106,000 after a recent low of $98,000, buoyed by calming geopolitical tensions. Despite a slight bearish sentiment, data indicates a maturing bulls market with only minor fluctuations. The overall drawdown stands at -4.7%, signalling ongoing consolidation. With profound resistance at $109,300, analysts eye a potential breakout toward new highs, driven by strong buying interest and overall market maturity.

Bitcoin has found a renewed footing above the $106,000 mark after a rough patch influenced by rising tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, market anxiety peaked amid geopolitical concerns. However, the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has boosted market sentiments, leading Bitcoin to reclaim essential levels. As a result, bulls are beginning to regain control in the short term.

Recent data from CryptoQuant indicates the current market structure appears healthy, showing signs of a maturing bull cycle. Since the rally took off in November 2022, Bitcoin has only faced two significant drawdowns of over 30%. The major drops occurred in August 2024 and April 2025, with Bitcoin bouncing back each time to reach new all-time highs. This reaction underscores a strong underlying demand and the crypto asset’s resilience.

In fact, all other corrections throughout this growth phase have hovered within a more typical range of 10–20%, often seen as temporary shake-outs rather than indicators of market weakness. Presently, Bitcoin’s weekly simple moving average (SMA) drawdown stands at approximately -7%, while the overall drawdown has tightened to -4.7%. This suggests Bitcoin is indeed consolidating in a stable phase between $100,000 and $106,000. Easing volatility coupled with buyer activity signals that Bitcoin is setting up for its next major move.

Bitcoin’s price action recently captured attention after a concerning dip to $98,000 raised eyebrows across the market. Fortunately, BTC has managed to rebound, now trading above $105,000, and operating within a narrow consolidation pattern. Although there are whispers of a possible double top, on-chain analytics point towards no critical structural breakdown. Sentiment varies slightly bearish, yet the underlying trend remains sufficiently strong.

Notably, analyst Axel Adler reported that since this bull market began in November 2022, Bitcoin has only witnessed two major drops exceeding 30%, both followed by swift recoveries. Outside these instances, price corrections have typically been within a 10-20% range, suggesting a bolstered market with steadier hands and disciplined demand.

Currently, Bitcoin’s drawdown figures reinforce the notion of consolidating calm within the $100K to $106K range. Historically, this cycle’s pattern of deep corrections followed by accumulation may hint at another upcoming rise towards all-time highs if it holds. Optimism is mounting around Bitcoin’s path, buoyed by macro adoption and dwindling exchange liquidity, alongside a growing belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

As BTC traded around $106,622 on the 12-hour chart, it clearly displayed a strong recovery from its recent low. This resurgence, prompted by geopolitical easing in the Middle East, allowed Bitcoin to surge past the critical support level of $103,600. Furthermore, its rise above the 50 and 100-period moving averages indicates increasing momentum.

The trading volume also spiked during this rebound, showcasing significant buyer interest close to that $100K threshold. Looking ahead, Bitcoin is now hitting a key resistance area around $109,300. This level marks the last local peak where sellers have historically intervened. If bulls can muster the strength to break through this barrier, it could trigger a surge towards new highs.

However, failing to maintain this momentum could see Bitcoin revisiting the $103,600 support. The current trading range between $103K and $109K has seen consistent activity since early May, making the potential breakout in either direction critical for determining the next market trend.