Bitcoin Price Target at $170K as Global M2 Supply Hits Record

Bitcoin’s price could rise significantly as global liquidity reaches record levels, prompting interest among investors in the cryptocurrency market as they watch striking currency trends.

Bitcoin’s Historical Trends with M2 Supply

Bitcoin could possibly be on the upswing, targeting a lofty $170,000 mark as the global M2 money supply, a measurement of liquidity, has soared to a staggering $55.48 trillion as of July 2. This record-high figure isn’t just a random number; it reflects a substantial amount of cash in circulation, which importantly includes balances in bank accounts, checking deposits, and other quick-access assets. When there’s more money in the economy, it can lead to a greater investment in higher-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, which has historically proven to be the case with Bitcoin.

Understanding the M2 Lag Effect

M2 is more than just a statistic; it aggregates money supply across significant economies like the US, eurozone, Japan, the UK, and Canada—all adjusted for the US dollar. When we look at Bitcoin’s performance over the years, a pattern emerges: the cryptocurrency has typically followed shifts in M2 by a margin of about three to six months. This historical lag can sometimes close in a matter of weeks, as evidenced during Bitcoin’s dramatic rise above the $100,000 threshold back in April 2025.

The Importance of Sustainable Uptrends

However, it’s worth noting that while Bitcoin can rally during periods of low M2 growth, such instances often don’t last long. On the flip side, rallies that are backed by rising M2 levels tend to create sustainable and longer-lasting uptrends—a critical insight for investors and analysts alike. As analyst Crypto Auris pointed out, this expanding global money supply suggests Bitcoin’s next upward target is indeed hovering around that $170K mark.

The US Dollar’s Decline Drives Bitcoin

Aside from the M2 numbers, there is another factor at play: the weakening US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against other major currencies, has witnessed a notable decline of 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking its poorest performance for the first half of the year since the Bretton Woods collapse in the 1970s. This dollar slump coincided with Bitcoin’s impressive 13.25% gain, creating an interesting negative correlation between the two.

Trend Reversals and Divergences

Looking back at history, significant shifts between Bitcoin prices and the dollar have often indicated pivotal trend reversals. For instance, instances in April 2018 and March 2022 saw rising DXY values coincide with falling Bitcoin prices, signaling impending bear markets. Conversely, the divergence seen in November 2020 heralded the start of a major Bitcoin rally. Currently, since early 2024, Bitcoin and DXY had been moving almost in sync, but from April 2025, a divergence emerged as the dollar dropped below 100 for the first time in two years. This shift might just be the precursor to yet another Bitcoin uptrend.

Outlook and Caution for Investors

If the historical patterns hold true, they suggest that a prolonged dollar weakness could really supercharge Bitcoin’s performance, pushing it beyond what we might typically expect based on the cryptocurrency’s past cycles. Analysts from Standard Chartered have even hypothesized that Bitcoin could hit big new highs of around $135K by the third quarter. Investors would be wise, however, to remember that the crypto landscape is riddled with risks, and they should always tread carefully, conducting thorough research before diving into any financial decisions.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is looking quite promising with a potential target of $170,000, particularly as global M2 money supply rises to unprecedented levels. This positive momentum, combined with the weakening US dollar, could signify a new upward trend for Bitcoin. As always, amidst the excitement, it’s crucial for investors to approach with caution and thoroughly assess their options before making any significant investments.