Analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research forecasts Bitcoin’s consolidation phase amid bearish short-term indicators. He challenges widespread optimism predicting new all-time highs by June, citing a disconnect between current signals and long-term trends. With Bitcoin recently trading around $83,810 after a 32.80% rise over 12 months, Thielen suggests a trading range of $73,000 to $94,000 may prevail, drawing parallels to its behaviour in 2024.
Analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research indicates that Bitcoin may be entering a protracted phase of consolidation, with current short-term indicators suggesting a bearish trend, which contrasts with the expectations of many in the crypto community achieving new all-time highs by June. Thielen’s report suggests that onchain data reflects a market environment more aligned with a bear market than a bullish upsurge.
Thielen has analysed the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator, which assesses price momentum by comparing closing prices over a specific period. He notes that the patterns observed resemble those typical of a market top or late-cycle phase, rather than signalling the beginning of a new bull market. He highlights a disconnect between short-term market signals and long-term indicators.
According to Thielen, Bitcoin’s recent rally is no longer driven by speculation associated with retail traders; instead, it is characterised by long-term holders adopting a buy-and-hold strategy. Over the past year, Bitcoin has increased by 32.80%, currently trading around $83,810 as reported by CoinMarketCap.
Thielen anticipates that Bitcoin will continue to consolidate in a range similar to 2024, where he views the trading band between $73,000 and $94,000 as probable, but with a slightly upward bias. Notably, in March 2024, Bitcoin peaked at $73,679 before experiencing consolidation, dipping in price until significant events such as the US elections.
Despite general optimism among crypto analysts regarding the potential for Bitcoin to surpass its current all-time high of $109,000, which was set in January, Thielen remains cautious. Although many analysts predict that a new high could be achieved by June, they express varied opinions on the likelihood and timing of this event. Bitcoin’s rapid ascent could occur, potentially reaching record levels before the second quarter concludes.
