Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision, predicts Bitcoin could surge to $450,000 as part of a liquidity-driven supercycle, driven by profound macroeconomic trends. He cites strong correlations between Bitcoin and global liquidity and discusses the impact of debt cycles on crypto markets. Pal warns against bearish sentiment, suggesting the market has already adjusted for economic weaknesses and is preparing for a new liquidity phase. He anticipates significant price movements in the coming years, driven by central bank policies and global liquidity dynamics.
During the recent Sui Basecamp event, macro investor and co-founder of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, delivered an expansive talk on the current state of the crypto market. He characterised this moment as the dawn of a liquidity-driven supercycle that could potentially see Bitcoin soar to $450,000. Drawing from his extensive background in macroeconomic analysis—more than thirty years—Pal introduced his concept of the “Everything Code,” pivoting on global liquidity, debt cycles, and currency debasement as the key forces influencing asset prices today.
Pal presented a compelling case for why Bitcoin reaching $450,000 might not be as far-fetched as some think. “Bitcoin’s year-on-year rate of change is driven by financial conditions with a three-month lag,” he said. He pointed out a striking 90% correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity, and a 95% correlation with Nasdaq, which he argues firmly illustrates an ongoing reality. According to him, this correlation isn’t just a coincidence; it’s a fundamental aspect of how today’s macroeconomic environment operates, particularly post-2008 when debt levels became unsustainable and liquidity injections became necessary.
Most people, Pal argued, misinterpret the real drivers behind the cycles seen in the crypto markets. “Everyone likes to talk about the halving,” he noted, “but it’s really about the debt refinancing cycle.” He explained that global debt tends to roll over every four years, leading central banks to inject liquidity to stave off potential economic collapse. With the average maturity for global debt hovering around four years, this creates natural liquidity cycles that coincide with crypto market surges.
He painted a somewhat alarming picture of the financial landscape: according to Pal, scarce assets like real estate and equities keep rising out of reach for young buyers due to what he termed a global “taxation” of about 8% annually that most may not fully grasp. Combined with an approximate 3% inflation rate globally, that adds up, he argued. In this framework, Bitcoin—with its limited supply and decentralised nature—emerges as a logical haven for capital seeking refuge.
Citing Bitcoin’s exceptional historical performance, Pal pointed out that since 2012, it has yielded an astonishing 27.5 million percent return and an average annualised return of approximately 130%, despite experiencing significant downturns along the way. For context, he compared these returns to Ethereum (113%) and Solana (142%), noting that Solana’s metrics are from a shorter period, hence less consistent.
Pal’s assertions, while bold, seem rooted in substantial analysis and established indicators. He paid particular attention to Demark indicators—an analytical tool that can highlight market shifts. Currently, these indicators are signalling a potential breakout for Bitcoin.
According to his analysis, if the ISM Manufacturing Index nudges up to 57, Bitcoin could well be priced at $450,000. Pal acknowledged this isn’t a precise figure, but he critiqued other estimates of $150,000 or $250,000 as perhaps conservative, shaped by past cycles.
He expressed scepticism about the current bearish market sentiment, considering it rather misguided: “People are creating narratives for today to explain liquidity conditions from three months ago,” Pal said, further voicing objections to the prevailing discourse on social media platforms. To him, Bitcoin has already adjusted for recent economic anxieties, such as inflation fears and geopolitical issues, signalling a shift towards the next liquidity expansion phase.
Pal introduced what he referred to as “the banana zone”—a lively phase he believes we’ve entered during this cycle. “Every cycle has similarities: breakout, retest, then the banana zone,” he explained. He argued the current setup appears particularly robust due to a blend of factors: global liquidity expansion, a weakening dollar, the easing of central bank policies, coupled with underexposure to riskier assets from both retail and institutional investors.
In closing, Pal reaffirmed his outlook with urgency but also caution: central banks are actively devaluing currency, creating a tailwind effect that should propel markets. “They don’t want the system to break. They inject more liquidity whenever necessary,” he remarked, also advising against overtrading or panicking during inevitable market fluctuations. He urged listeners to hold their positions and “follow the liquidity”, recalling his own lessons learned from previous market cycles.
Looking ahead, Pal expects this market cycle to potentially extend into the first or second quarter of 2026, especially with the political implications surrounding potential re-election dynamics for Trump, which could prolong the liquidity cycle. While the possibility of Bitcoin hitting $450,000 hinges on many factors, Pal’s premise is assertive: the macro forces are in place, the data backs it up, and this might well turn out to be “the greatest macro opportunity of all time.” As of now, Bitcoin is trading at around $94,191.
