A growing number of cryptocurrency experts, including Andre Dragosch from Bitwise, predict Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2029. The bullish sentiment is driven by its scarcity: with only 21 million Bitcoins to be mined and about 94% already in circulation, many believe prices will rise as demand continues to outstrip available supply. However, caution is advised, as regulatory changes and liquidity issues could impact growth.
As Bitcoin hovers near $95,000, many in the cryptocurrency space are confident it could reach $1 million by 2029. The fundamental reasoning behind this bold prediction doesn’t rely on a reinvention of Bitcoin, but rather its decreasing scarcity. With new investment flowing in and the supply continually tightening, advocates believe Bitcoin’s price is poised for a significant upward trend over the long haul.
On May 1, Andre Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise Asset Management, added his voice to these expectations. He forecasts Bitcoin achieving that $1 million milestone by 2029. So what’s fueling these bullish sentiments? The answer lies partly in the supply dynamics.
Under Bitcoin’s core protocol, there’s a hard cap of 21 million coins to be mined. Presently, around 94% of that total has already been mined, and following the most recent halving in April 2024, only 450 new bitcoins will be produced daily. However, many experts believe this number could be misleading because roughly 20% of all bitcoins are presumed lost or inaccessible, as owners lose their wallet credentials. This means the genuinely circulating supply is far less than what’s indicated.
Corporate treasuries, asset managers, and potentially governments are all in the mix for Bitcoin too. The result? The number of bitcoins available for purchase is dwindling and large holders are generally not inclined to sell. Many investors are starting to view Bitcoin as more akin to a finite commodity—like gold—rather than just another speculative asset. This shift in perspective might be significant.
If demand remains steady, we could naturally see Bitcoin’s price creep upwards, but any increase in demand could set the stage for that ambitious $1 million target to become a reality. While it’s prudent to approach these soaring price predictions with caution, there’s a narrative here that’s tough to ignore.
Scepticism is healthy when faced with such audacious targets like $1 million—they can sound more like marketing hype than genuine analysis. This speculation often arises from insiders who may just be promoting the assets they hold. With a deadline that’s set pretty far out, it sort of allows for a wide range of scenarios to unfold. But if we focus on the trends, it seems like Bitcoin has potential.
Bitcoin is slated for another halving in 2028, which means another round of tightening supply. Considering both institutional and retail adoption, it’s likely that there will be more buyers than sellers in the market as we head towards that date. Over the long run, especially if you consider a timeline beyond just a few years, Bitcoin could very feasibly exceed that $1 million figure.
However, one shouldn’t overlook the possibility that this bullish sentiment could fizzle out. Regulatory changes that reinstigate tougher controls could slow down adoption or even trigger a sharp drop in prices. Additionally, a decrease in global liquidity or Bitcoin’s struggle to find its place in institutional portfolios might wobble the narrative.
