Bitcoin Surges to $100,000 Amid Trade Talks and Bullish Market Sentiment

Bitcoin has crossed the $100,000 mark for the first time since February, driven by US-China trade negotiations and potential UK agreements. Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $120,000 by Q2’s end, influenced by Federal interest rate management. Institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, with recent positive ETF inflows adding to a bullish market sentiment.

Bitcoin has surged back to the $100,000 mark, a feat it hasn’t achieved since February. This jump coincides with critical trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, and whispers of a trade deal with the UK. Data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin slipped just under $100,000, now sitting at approximately $99,500 after being up 2.6% on the day and 3.5% week-on-week.

U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at a “major trade deal” through a post on Truth Social, suggesting potential diplomatic progress following economic turbulence caused by heavy tariffs introduced during his administration. Meanwhile, Treasure Secretary Scott Bessent is off to Switzerland for trade talks with China, marking the first discussions since tariffs were enacted. Bessent has downplayed expectations, hinting that the discussions are more about relief than any comprehensive agreements.

Analyst Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered is optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. He suggests in a recent note shared with Decrypt, that hitting $120,000 by the end of Q2 is absolutely feasible. He highlighted that next week is crucial for institutional investors to declare their Bitcoin holdings, which could significantly influence market dynamics. Kendrick mentioned, “Due to this pressure, I expect notable increases in positions held by institutions like MicroStrategy.”

Kendrick references Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, which recently held a small position in Bitcoin, and speculates this has grown. In addition, Swiss National Bank’s interest in purchasing shares in MicroStrategy signals institutional confidence in Bitcoin. By the close of his note, he seemed to re-evaluate his target, hinting it might actually be too low.

Bitcoin’s climb from around $94,000 earlier this week has roots in the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed a cautious atmosphere but praised the U.S. economy’s strength. Marco Lim at Solowin Holdings also believes Bitcoin’s trajectory towards $120,000 is contingent on the Fed’s future policy decisions. He expressed that relief through rate cuts could elevate Bitcoin’s momentum significantly.

Trader sentiment has notably improved, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index rising to 65, aligning with a “Greed” stance, up from the previous Neutral rating. Market strategist Joel Kruger shared that this spike in optimism reflects broader confidence among investors. Factors like reduced global trade tensions and solid institutional interest contribute to this bullish trend.

In a sign of shifting attitudes, Bitcoin ETFs saw significant inflows on Wednesday with $142 million, reversing Tuesday’s $85 million outflows. Ark Invest’s ARKB led the way, responsible for bringing in $54.7 million. Peter Chung of Presto attributed this shift to institutions realising the necessity to diversify away from traditional USD-based assets, saying this move would bolster the appeal of both gold and Bitcoin.

As global powers scramble to counter growth slowdowns due to trade wars, Bitcoin seems set to be a significant player in the upcoming economic landscape. It will be interesting to see how these next few weeks play out for Bitcoin and broader market trends.