Bitcoin is currently trading near $103.9K, approaching a key resistance level of $106K. A breakout above this could lead to an additional target of $115K. Additionally, over $1.5 billion in short positions may liquidate if the price climbs above $115K, while large holders continue accumulating Bitcoin, signalling bullish sentiments. However, some caution signals suggest the market may be overheating.
Bitcoin is edging closer to a crucial resistance threshold of $106,000, trading currently at around $103,980. The day’s trading started at approximately $102,942, peaking momentarily at $104,085 before maintaining support above $102,784. For now, the price range between $102,000 and $106,000 is significant; it was previously a barrier preventing Bitcoin’s ascent earlier this year.
If Bitcoin manages to break through this resistance level, there’s substantial optimism among traders regarding a potential next target of $115,000. Observing the chart reveals a strong upward momentum since mid-April, when Bitcoin crossed the $90,000 mark. The pace of the rise has included numerous minor resistances and has benefitted from heightened market volume.
On another note, major Bitcoin holders are actively increasing their positions, as indicated by data from CryptoRank and CryptoQuant. Wallets possessing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC saw a ramp-up in holdings between January and May of 2025. The blue line on their charts points to a consistent accumulation trend that has been ongoing since November 2024. Such sizable investors often comprise hedge funds, mining operations, and institutional buyers, demonstrating a long-term bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin.
However, a looming risk is that over $1.5 billion worth of short positions are poised for liquidation if Bitcoin rallies to $115,000. The liquidation levels predominantly sit in the $104,000-$106,000 range, per CoinGlass data. When short sellers are forced to exit their positions amid rising prices, it can amplify the upward momentum by pushing more buy orders into the market.
Should Bitcoin clear the $106,000 barrier and continue climbing towards the $110,000 mark, a wave of forced liquidations could be unleashed, typically fuelling previous bullish runs. Conversely, below the current levels, the liquidity zones are minimal, indicating that short-term pressure isn’t too threatening unless there’s a sudden downturn.
Despite a hopeful outlook, market indicators suggest caution may be warranted in the long term. One notable signal is the Coinvo’s Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio, which juxtaposes Bitcoin’s market cap against the historical total costs incurred by miners. Historically, when this ratio enters the “Extremely Overbought Zone,” Bitcoin has tended to hit local peaks.
Currently, this ratio is on the verge of reaching a level seen at prior cycle peaks around 2013, 2017, and 2021, highlighting a similar pricing pattern as Bitcoin fluctuates between $100,000 and $105,000. While this isn’t definitive of an immediate peak, it does provide a tactical layer for long-term investors, based on historical trends. If past behaviour holds, a breakout over $115,000 could further support bullish price trajectories.
