Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $1 Million Amid U.S. Economic Strain

Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will surge to $1 million, driven by collapsing U.S. treasuries and capital repatriation. He warns of potential capital controls and suggests a foreign holdings tax could affect U.S. markets. While bullish on BTC’s future, Hayes notes market volatility could provide short-selling opportunities.

Arthur Hayes, the chief investment officer at Maelstrom and co-founder of Bitmex, has made a bold prediction in his recent blog post from May 14. He states that Bitcoin could skyrocket to $1 million as a result of collapsing U.S. treasuries and capital flight. According to Hayes, the U.S. is potentially heading towards capital controls, a move he sees as a viable alternative to traditional tariffs. He claims that these measures could significantly impact foreign investment in U.S. financial markets.

Hayes suggests that imposing a 2% tax on foreign holdings of U.S. assets, which total a staggering $33 trillion, would be a more practical and effective strategy than tariffs. He believes such a tax could offset income taxes for the vast majority of Americans, thereby encouraging policymakers to pursue this course. As he sees it, a retreat of foreign capital will force the Federal Reserve to inject stimulus to support struggling markets, acting as a prerequisite for a reevaluation of alternative assets, particularly Bitcoin.

He states, “Bitcoin will be the best performing asset during this period of global monetary transformation.” He elaborates that capital controls may restrict investors from freely moving their assets, yet Bitcoin will remain accessible for trading online. “As long as there is the internet, you will be able to sell fiat for bitcoin,” Hayes noted, emphasising the cryptocurrency’s resilience.

The Bitmex co-founder views Bitcoin as an essential tool amid ever-changing global capital markets. “Bitcoin is the perfect and only lifeboat for global capital that must leave America and elsewhere,” he stressed. Hayes predicts that geopolitical changes and shifts in U.S. monetary policy will drive Bitcoin’s price upwards, asserting that foreign capital repatriation and the anticipated depreciation of U.S. treasuries will propel it to that unprecedented $1 million mark by 2028.

He explained that he set this year as a target due to the looming U.S. presidential election—an event that could bring about unpredictable policy changes depending on the victor. Hayes describes this prediction as a significant window of opportunity for investors, urging them to act quickly. However, he also expressed a word of caution about potential volatility, remarking, “Just because I believe bitcoin is going to $1 million, doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities to take tactical short positions.”