Bitcoin Price Outlook: $65K as the Potential Catalyst for Market Change

James Check suggests that Bitcoin’s $65,000 price point could signal the end of the current bear market, marking the average cost basis for investors. A strong support area is observed around $50,000, especially surrounding the anticipated launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. The analyst projects that Bitcoin may need to reach $65,000 for true market capitulation, impacting long-term holders with potential unrealized losses.

Bitcoin’s price outlook signals that the $65,000 mark may indicate the end of the bear market, according to well-known analyst James Check. This level reflects the average cost basis for investors, suggesting that a drop to this price could affect both long-term holders and active investors, potentially causing unrealized losses. Check also emphasizes that while prices could be stabilising, a true capitulation event might still be needed to confirm the bottom.

Check highlights that a market cap of $1 trillion, which corresponds to a Bitcoin price of around $50,000, presents a robust support level. He anticipates that should Bitcoin decline to $65,000, this could exert pressure on investors. He mentions that even those who have held Bitcoin for five years might find their investments affected. Interestingly, this figure aligns with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which suggests a cost basis around $67,500.

Moving forward, Check predicts significant price reductions below $65,000 but also identifies strong support in the range of $49,000 to $50,000. This range is notable as it coincides with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the mentioned $1 trillion market cap. He assesses that a drop to $40,000 is unlikely, barring any major global economic downturns. In his analysis, Check references a previous period of price-level “chopsolidation” in 2024, where Bitcoin traded between $50,000 and $70,000 for several months, thereby establishing solid support.

James Van Straten, the author, is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, focusing on Bitcoin and its connection to the macroeconomic landscape. With a background as a Research Analyst at a Swiss hedge fund, he brings expertise in on-chain analytics to his current role. Van Straten also advises Coinsilium on their Bitcoin treasury strategy and invests in Bitcoin and related companies.