History Suggests Bitcoin Taps $330K, Crypto ETF Odds Hit 90%: Hodler’s Digest, June 15 – 21

This week in crypto, the odds for US ETF approval have jumped to 90%, Coinbase secures a MiCA license, and Semler Scientific plans to increase Bitcoin holdings significantly. Bitcoin sentiment is currently low as retail traders show uncertainty, while Durov is allowed temporary travel to Dubai. Overall, Bitcoin trades at $103,460 with notable altcoin fluctuations.

Top Stories of The Week

The latest buzz in cryptocurrency revolves around the growing expectations for US regulators to approve multiple crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Analysts from Bloomberg, Erich Balchunas and James Seyffart, now place the likelihood of approval at a staggering ‘90% or higher,’ suggesting that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is shifting towards a more pro-crypto stance. Seyffart noted via social media that the analysts have observed notably positive signals from the SEC. Moreover, they mentioned that cryptocurrencies like Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin could upcoming be seen as commodities, potentially reducing the SEC’s regulatory reach over them.

In another development, Coinbase has successfully secured its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) licence from the Luxembourg regulator, the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, allowing it to offer products across the EU. This move not only gives Coinbase a firm foothold in a competitive European market but also highlights the ongoing rush for crypto registrations among exchanges. Other players, such as OKX and Crypto.com, obtained their licenses earlier this year, with Gemini also working hard on obtaining theirs. Luxembourg was chosen as Coinbase’s new European base owing to its progressive regulatory landscape, situated closely among France, Germany, and Belgium.

Healthcare technology company Semler Scientific, Inc. has ambitious plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings significantly, targeting 105,000 BTC by 2027. Currently holding 3,808 BTC, the company plans to ramp up its investments using a mix of equity, debt financing, and cash flow, eyeing 10,000 BTC by December 2023 and 42,000 BTC by the end of 2026. Semler made its initial Bitcoin purchase in May 2024 and continues to commit to long-term holding strategies for the digital asset.

Meanwhile, sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is at a rather low ebb. According to data from crypto research firm Santiment, retail traders are equally divided on Bitcoin’s future, showing a level of pessimism not seen since April. Brian Quinlivan, marketing chief at Santiment, pointed out that the ratio of positive to negative comments stands at a mere 1.03 bullish comments for each bearish comment. He noted that this measurement reminds traders of the peak FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) back during tariff announcements in April.

Over in France, Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov has received court permission for a temporary exit from the country. Durov will be allowed to travel to Dubai for up to two weeks starting July 10. This comes on the heels of a previous refusal by French authorities regarding a travel request he made to attend a human rights forum in Oslo, Norway, which he ultimately presented online instead.

Winners and Losers

As the week wraps up, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $103,460, while Ether (ETH) is at $2,424 and XRP holds at $2.12. The overall market cap is pegged at $3.20 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, Sei (SEI) has soared by 24.38%, Kaia (KAIA) has jumped 23.85%, and Aerodrome Finance (AERO) edged up 9.19%. However, the greatest losers this week include Story (IP), plummeting 28.35%, SPX6900 (SPX) down at 27.20%, and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) down 24.20%.

Most Memorable Quotations

This week brought some noteworthy quotes: Changpeng Zhao from Binance suggested that all platforms should implement a ‘will function’ for asset distribution. Anthony Pompliano insisted that Wall Street is increasingly leaning towards Bitcoin, while Arthur Hayes pointed out it is just the beginning of this cycle’s stablecoin excitement. Torbjørn Bull Jenssen of K33 advocated for the importance of a solid Bitcoin-backed balance sheet, and Pan Gongsheng highlighted the risk of politicising traditional cross-border payment systems. Lastly, Michaël van de Poppe remarked on the shifting market focus from Bitcoin towards Ethereum.

Top Prediction of The Week

Historical trends in Bitcoin price suggest a potential surge to $330,000 before this investment cycle concludes. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s recent posts have spotlighted an important metric: the AVIV Ratio. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s active capital to its total invested capital and has historically indicated price peaks when it surpasses a +3σ mean deviation, observing past cycles when BTC hit $1,200 in 2013, near $20,000 in 2017, and around $69,000 in 2021.