History Suggests Bitcoin Taps $330K, Crypto ETF Odds Hit 90%: Hodler’s Digest, June 15 – 21

Bloomberg analysts foresee a strong chance for US crypto ETF approvals at 90%. Coinbase secures a MiCA license as it chooses Luxembourg for its EU base. Semler Scientific aims to substantially increase its Bitcoin holdings. Sentiment among Bitcoin traders appears split. Telegram founder Pavel Durov gains court permission to travel, while Norway considers a temporary ban on crypto mining due to energy concerns.

Fast Summary
This week’s Hodler’s Digest highlights significant movements in the cryptocurrency landscape. Analysts from Bloomberg say there’s a 90% likelihood of U.S. regulators approving crypto ETFs, indicating a shift in the SEC’s stance. Coinbase has secured a MiCA license in Luxembourg, marking its new EU headquarters. Semler Scientific plans massive Bitcoin accumulation, while traders face mixed feelings about Bitcoin’s future. Telegram’s Pavel Durov has gained court approval for temporary travel, and Norway is contemplating crypto mining restrictions for energy conservation.

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The buzz this week in the crypto space focuses on a fair bit of optimism. Bloomberg analysts have announced that the probability of U.S. regulators approving multiple crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is now at a staggering 90% or possibly higher. This development, as detailed by analysts Erich Balchunas and James Seyffart, indicates a promising shift at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). They noted improved interactions with the SEC, which seems to view several cryptocurrencies, like Litecoin and Dogecoin, as commodities, thus excluding them from its immediate claws.

In other news, Coinbase has clinched a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license, courtesy of Luxembourg’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. This means they’ll soon be able to offer crypto products across various EU countries. This step also marks an increase in competition within the European crypto market. Several exchanges, including OKX and Crypto.com, are also racing ahead to secure similar licenses, while Bybit and Gemini have made strides in that direction as well. Luxembourg is now home for Coinbase in Europe, reflecting its favourable position in financial regulations.

Meanwhile, healthcare tech firm Semler Scientific is making headlines with plans to ramp up its Bitcoin holdings from a modest 3,808 Bitcoin to a whopping 105,000 by 2027. The company’s aggressive strategy is to gather 10,000 BTC by the end of 2023 and aims for major milestones every year thereafter, using a mix of equity, debt financing, and operational cash flows. The firm has even named a new director to drive this ambitious agenda, having begun its journey in Bitcoin investments back in May 2024.

On the sentiment front, it seems Bitcoin traders are experiencing a precarious time. Research from crypto analytics platform Santiment indicates that retail traders are split almost evenly regarding Bitcoin’s performance outlook. This comes amid the lowest sentiment levels since prior market jolts last April. The marketing director, Brian Quinlivan, shared some insights, revealing an alarming ratio of 1.03 bullish comments for every bearish one, echoing previous instances of fear, uncertainty, and doubt prevalent in the market.

In various rulings, Telegram’s Pavel Durov has secured court approval to temporarily leave France for up to 14 days, travelling to Dubai. His prior request to visit Oslo was denied by French officials, leading him to speak remotely at the Oslo Freedom Forum instead. Durov will now be allowed to travel from July 10, allowing him to meet with his Dubai-based team.

In the broader cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin trades at $103,460 with Ether at $2,424 and XRP at $2.12. The total market cap has skyrocketed to around $3.20 trillion, as noted by CoinMarketCap. Among top performers this week are altcoins like Sei, Kaia, and Aerodrome Finance, while Story and SPX6900 show considerable losses.

On the spot for the week, predictions point to Bitcoin possibly hitting $330,000 before the current bull cycle wraps up. Historical trends observed through the AVIV Ratio suggest that significant price surges are likely, as seen in past cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

In terms of challenges, Norway’s government is contemplating a temporary ban on crypto mining. The motivation? Energy supply concerns. Officials are looking to free up power for other uses, and their investigations could lead to regulations limiting crypto mining operations. Meanwhile, back in France, a young man became the victim of a kidnapping related to crypto assets, underscoring risks associated with the digital currency space.

Across the globe, industry leaders are expressing varied sentiments about the evolving landscape. Warnings from experts suggest that the rise of politicians promoting memecoins and a casual regulatory environment may be fuelling a crypto “crime supercycle.” With each week, the fluctuating state of the crypto market brings both highs and lows, and it’s clear that the drama isn’t about to let up anytime soon.