10x Research analysts predict Bitcoin will remain within a trading range of $73,000 to $94,000 due to the absence of a clear marginal buyer and subdued market dynamics. They recommend premium-harvesting strategies for sophisticated traders, leveraging both calls and puts amidst current volatility. The report also highlights low Bitcoin ETF inflows and weak retail trading volumes, suggesting continued consolidation in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is projected to remain range-bound within $73,000 to $94,000, according to analysts at 10x Research. The current lack of a clear marginal buyer in the crypto market suggests a continuation of this consolidation trend rather than any significant directional breakouts. As market volatility remains elevated and funding rates are low, sophisticated traders may find premium-harvesting strategies particularly beneficial by selling options on Bitcoin.
The analysis highlights ongoing uncertainty due to trade war dynamics and reveals low inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which totalled only $225 million year-to-date as of April. The trend shows a third consecutive month of outflows predominantly driven by arbitrage-focused hedge funds, rather than genuine investor demand. Despite a surge in holdings from wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC after Elon Musk’s endorsement in August 2024, these buyers have since halted their accumulation, leaving the market without a strong marginal buyer.
Furthermore, 10x analysts note weak retail trading volumes and limited fiat inflows, indicated by low stablecoin minting, which hampers Bitcoin’s potential for upward movement and contributes to persistent altcoin underperformance. The market’s recent rally has been primarily led by long-term holders focusing on diversification rather than speculative trading, resulting in slower growth in new network addresses when compared to previous cycles.
The report suggests that Bitcoin’s current market conditions represent a late-cycle phase, as reflected in cycle indicators like the stochastic oscillator. While there are short-term technical improvements, the overall market structure remains weak. Traders are encouraged to adopt a sophisticated strategy, such as selling puts and calls, to gain from these range-bound conditions effectively.
With Bitcoin’s support near $73,000 providing a favourable risk-reward setup, traders may achieve a 10% downside with a potential 20% upside. This approach makes use of option-implied volatility which holds the promise of attractive yields, contrasting sharply with the low returns in basis trades. The report stresses the necessity for traders to cultivate a finance-oriented skill set as they navigate complex market conditions by balancing high-yield income strategies, directional positioning, and capital preservation.
