Coinbase’s April report warns of a looming crypto winter, signified by a 41% drop in total crypto market cap and reduced liquidity. The market exhibits bearish signals, with Bitcoin and altcoin indices breaking key technical levels. Macroeconomic factors weigh heavily on outlook, although Coinbase remains cautiously optimistic for potential recovery in the latter half of 2025.
In its April Monthly Outlook report, Coinbase indicated that a significant drop in crypto valuations and a breakdown of crucial technical indicators may herald a new bear market for digital assets, commonly referred to as a “crypto winter.” This prolonged downturn is characterised by falling prices, diminishing liquidity, and decreased investor enthusiasm.
The total crypto market capitalisation, excluding Bitcoin (BTC), has decreased by 41% since it reached a high of $1.6 trillion in December 2024, now sitting at $950 billion, which is below the levels observed throughout most of 2022. This market drop corresponds with a 50-60% decline in venture capital investments from their peaks in 2021-2022, despite a slight recovery seen in early 2025.
The report highlights that broader macroeconomic challenges, such as global tariffs, fiscal tightening, and falling equity markets, contribute to a fragile outlook for cryptocurrencies in the short term. David Duong, Coinbase’s Global Head of Research, noted that the recent declines in Bitcoin and the COIN50 Index, which tracks the top 50 non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, can no longer be dismissed as mere volatility; both indices have breached their 200-day moving averages, indicating a potential bearish cycle.
