The Impact of Ethereum Whales on Market Stability and Prices

Ethereum remains under the $2,000 mark, facing bearish pressure mainly from rising whale concentration and declining retail participation. Whale addresses now control 46% of ETH, raising centralisation concerns. The risk of sudden price volatility increases due to this concentration, especially with bearish EMA trends signalling potential declines. If buying pressure returns, Ethereum may approach resistance levels; however, the current trend remains tilted towards the downside.

Ethereum (ETH) is facing challenges below the $2,000 threshold, remaining in this position since March 28. The current market sentiment is marked by bearish momentum, evident in both technical analyses and on-chain indicators. Despite efforts to stabilise, there has been a significant increase in the concentration of ETH holdings among whale wallets, while retail participation is steadily declining, making ETH susceptible to sharp market corrections.

Currently, whales—defined as addresses holding over 1% of the total ETH supply—control approximately 46% of ETH, a peak not witnessed since 2015. The dominance of whale holdings has risen sharply, surpassing that of retail investors since March 10. In contrast, addresses with holdings between 0.1% and 1% and those with less than 0.1% of ETH are seeing a decrease in their shares. This shift indicates a trend towards increased concentration of Ethereum in fewer hands.

Particularly concerning is the status of whales who possess between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH, collectively worth around $59 billion, equating to roughly 25.5% of the circulating supply. This trend reveals a power migration towards these substantial entities, which, while independent from centralized exchanges, wield significant influence. Recently, the movement of $100 million in Ethereum by Galaxy Digital has raised questions about whether it signals a strategic divergence or a precursor to selling pressure.

The implications of this concentration present a double-edged sword: while it can be seen as a sign of confidence from large holders, it also amplifies the risk of extreme price volatility due to any large-scale liquidation. This vulnerability is magnified by the dwindling participation from retail and individual investors.

On the technical front, Ethereum’s Exponential Moving Average (EMA) configuration continues to present bearish indications, with short-term averages falling below long-term averages. If the market experiences a correction, critical support levels are anticipated at $1,535, with potential deeper declines to $1,412 or even $1,385 if those supports fail. Should these levels break, Ethereum could approach the concerning $1,000 threshold identified by analysts.

Conversely, an uptick in buying pressure could prompt Ethereum to test the resistance level at $1,669. A successful breakout above this could serve as a crucial bullish signal, leading to potential price movements towards $1,749 and $1,954. Nonetheless, with current EMAs indicating downward momentum, the onus is on bullish traders to demonstrate a notable shift towards bullish momentum.