Lyn Alden’s Revised Bitcoin Forecast Amidst Market Influences and Liquidity Trends

Lyn Alden anticipates Bitcoin will surpass $85,000 by the end of 2025, although potential price caps have emerged due to US tariff announcements. A substantial liquidity unlock could drive prices higher, similar to pre-tariff levels. Alden notes Bitcoin’s volatility is exacerbated by its continuous trading nature. She highlights correlations between Bitcoin and global monetary supply, suggesting it serves as a liquidity barometer.

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden has revised her Bitcoin price forecast for 2025, now expecting it to end higher than its current valuation of approximately $85,000 due to external market factors, primarily stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements in February. Despite the adjustment, Alden believes that a rise in Bitcoin’s price is likely by the year’s end.

She suggests that a significant catalyst, such as a marked liquidity unlock, could enhance Bitcoin’s price potential, similar to the pre-tariff predictions. Alden cited scenarios where the US bond market falters leading to interventions such as yield curve control or quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve as supportive to Bitcoin’s value.

Alden foresees a possibility for Bitcoin to reattain the $100,000 milestone before end of year; however, she warns that the asset will continue to face volatility due to its 24/7 trading nature. This constant trading allows investors to respond reactively to market conditions at any time, which can foster price instability, especially during down periods in traditional markets.

She noted that Bitcoin can potentially diverge from the performance of the Nasdaq 100; market conditions that negatively influence Nasdaq margins but do not disrupt global liquidity may be beneficial for Bitcoin’s valuation. Alden took reference from the period prior to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis as analogous to potentially favourable conditions for Bitcoin’s growth despite underperformance in US stock markets.

Alden’s research indicates that Bitcoin typically aligns with global M2 monetary supply shifts around 83% of the time over a 12-month span, positioning Bitcoin as a leading indicator of global liquidity compared to other key asset classes, including SPX and gold.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is reported at $84,868, as per CoinMarketCap data.