Bitcoin Price Forecast: Potential Surge to $138K Within Three Months

Bitcoin (BTC) may reach $138,000 in three months, with a minimum price floor of $75,000, according to economist Timothy Peterson. He notes a correlation with the US dollar driven by macroeconomic conditions, particularly the US trade war. Historical data indicate a 71% probability of Bitcoin price increases under similar conditions, emphasising the potential for significant price growth.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing an unprecedented correlation with the US dollar, presenting a potential price floor of $75,000. Timothy Peterson, a network economist, forecasts that BTC could surge to $138,000 in the next three months, driven by unique macroeconomic conditions, including the US trade war. Peterson’s analysis suggests that BTC has historically increased 71% of the time in similar scenarios since 2010, with a median gain of 31%.

The key determining factor is the US High Yield Index Effective Yield, which is presently above 8%. Peterson notes that based on historical data, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is often skewed upwards in these circumstances. Consequently, he estimates that Bitcoin could land between $75,000 and $138,000 within 90 days. Achieving the upper range will require a 62% gain within that timeframe.

Additionally, Peterson predicts a reversal in the Bitcoin-DXY correlation due to the significant decline in the US dollar index (DXY) arising from US trade tariffs. He argues that this correlation, previously historically inverse, has changed as both Bitcoin and the dollar respond to similar macroeconomic factors such as tightening liquidity and global risk aversion. He anticipates Bitcoin will decouple from the dollar and increase when real yields decline and liquidity improves.

As of April 18, the DXY has dipped below the crucial 100 mark, indicating its weakest position in three years. Analysis suggests that Bitcoin may leverage this dollar weakness similarly to the initial phases of its 2023 bull run, highlighting the potential for price growth.

Disclaimer: This article is not a financial advisory piece. Investment and trading carry risks, urging readers to perform their own research before making decisions.