Samson Mow Discusses Unit Bias and Bitcoin Dominance in Crypto Market

Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, argues that unit bias significantly misleads novice crypto investors, causing them to undervalue Bitcoin in favour of whole altcoins. He presents calculations showing unrealistic valuations for altcoins when compared to Bitcoin’s total supply. Mow suggests Bitcoin’s dominance will increase beyond earlier predictions of 60%, affecting market dynamics and altcoin investment strategies.

Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, asserts that Bitcoin dominance is poised for further growth, particularly in regard to altcoin valuations compared to Bitcoin. He highlights that many analysts previously underestimated Bitcoin’s dominance trajectory, expecting a peak by late 2024, yet current data indicates otherwise. Mow points out that unit bias significantly misleads novice investors who perceive cheaper altcoins as better value compared to fractional ownership of Bitcoin.

Mow illustrates the implications of unit bias, noting that investors might erroneously assume they are getting a better deal with whole altcoins. For instance, by calculating equivalent pricing of altcoins against Bitcoin’s total supply, he suggests Ether (ETH) should be priced at $9,200, XRP at $5,800, and Solana (SOL) at $3,400, representing vast increases from their then-current prices. He firmly states these valuations are unrealistic, questioning the true worth of altcoins.

Additionally, Mow acknowledges the widespread influence of unit bias, as many altcoins maintain inflated supply levels, obscuring true value for market participants. He emphasises that Bitcoin’s dominance metric, currently at 63.66%, is critical for traders analysing market trends, particularly when observing potential shifts to altcoin seasons. Historically, diminishing Bitcoin dominance has indicated capital flow into altcoins, seeking higher returns.

Despite predictions from analysts forecasting Bitcoin dominance to peak at 60% by late 2024, Mow believes the figure will surpass this mark, signalling a continued rise in Bitcoin’s market share. This dynamic underpins ongoing discussions regarding the timing for an emerging altcoin season, further complicating the market landscape.