Bitcoin Price Outlook: Potential for Further Decline or Bullish Recovery?

Bitcoin’s recent price surge of 14.60% contrasts with its drop below $75,000, raising concerns about potential market traps. Analyst Mike McGlone suggests a focus on safer assets like gold amid geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin’s moving average indicates substantial risk, with a potential early bear market hinted at through unrealized losses. However, analyst PlanB remains bullish, citing historical data indicating a possible surge above $100,000 instead of a crash.

Bitcoin (BTC) recently saw a remarkable rebound of 14.60% after dropping below $75,000 in April, marking its lowest in five months. Despite this recovery, it has struggled to break through the $85,000 resistance level, raising concerns among investors that the recent uptrend might lead to a potential market trap for bullish traders.

According to Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, the ongoing global trade war could drive investors towards safer assets like gold, which has recently surged to record highs. Bitcoin faces pressure as gold increasingly attracts investment amid rising recession fears and inflation risks, which may threaten to push its price below $50,000.

Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average stands at approximately $46,300, a significant drop of 45% from its current levels around $85,000. The surge in gold prices, which are up over 19% year-to-date, indicates a rotation into hard assets that contrast with high-risk investments like cryptocurrencies. This shift is evident from the substantial inflows into gold-backed ETFs, which have garnered over $27.10 billion in 2025, compared to $12.38 billion in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.

While some analysts predict gold’s rally may soon reverse due to potential “blow-off tops,” the potential for continued growth in Bitcoin remains, albeit with caution. Glassnode data highlights a divergence between short-term holders (STHs) experiencing unrealized losses and long-term holders (LTHs) still in profit. This situation may point to early stages of a bear market, though a definitive crash has yet to be confirmed.

Despite the current volatility, pseudonymous analyst PlanB maintains that Bitcoin remains in a structural bull market. He cites historical patterns around the 200-week moving average and the Stock-to-Flow model, suggesting that Bitcoin’s current price action aligns with phases that have historically led to major surges. Moreover, the convergence of these technical indicators in April suggests the possibility of a breakout above $100,000, rather than a decline into bear territory.

This article does not offer investment advice. All trading activities carry inherent risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.